China Critical Infrastructure Analysis:
Water, Agriculture, Energy, and Greenhouse Gases

Sandia National Laboratories has been engaged in a high-level analysis of the critical infrastructures of the People’s Republic of China to address questions about China's ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased economic activity and energy use. The integrated China infrastructure model presented here is a comprehensive state-of-the-art model that successfully combines four dynamic infrastructure models-water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gas to simulate, respectively, hydrologic budgetary processes, grain production and consumption, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in China through the year 2025. The integrated model simulates diverse flow networks of commodities, such as water and greenhouse gas, between the separate models to capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system and more accurately generate projections of the outcomes of changes in the commodity flows.

The Model in Action

The model was developed using the POWERSIM Constructor 2.5 modeling system. This platform generates results quickly (within minutes rather than hours or weeks), presents the results visually, demonstrates the relationships between the key variables, and allows the user to make adjustments for various “what if” scenarios and policy options concerning available water use, water-constrained grain production, caloric consumption, population growth, grain yield, sectoral gross domestic product (GDP) growth, sectoral energy intensities, fuel shares, energy requirements, and greenhouse gas emissions.

As shown in Figure 1, the integrated model couples commodity flows for water, methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) (solid arrows) between the separate infrastructure models. Additional commodity flows that have been proposed for future modeling are also presented in the figure (dotted arrows). The figure also identifies the six greenhouse gasses addressed in the Kyoto Protocol—CH₄, CO₂, nitrous oxide (N₂O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆). Only two of these, CH₄ and CO₂ have been modeled in the critical infrastructure model to date.

Figure 1. Model logic diagram.

Approach to Infrastructure Analysis

The model was used to generate projections of China’s available water resources, expected water use, and grain consumption and production for 10 river drainage regions representing 100% of China’s mean annual runoff and comprising 37 major river basins. The locations of the 10 regions are shown in Figure 2. Growth in energy use in six historically significant sectors and in greenhouse gas loading were projected for all of China. Greenhouse gases analyzed in the modeling effort were CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from the energy sector and CH₄ emissions from the agricultural sector. The study period extended from 1980 to 2025.

Figure 2. The 10 river drainage regions of China.

The analysis specifically included projecting the total available water in each river drainage region through the year 2025 and comparing these results with projections of total water use in each region in the three end-use sectors-urban, industrial, and agricultural-to determine the expected frequency of each region experiencing a water deficit through the study period. The model estimates violations of the sustainable yield constraint, as follows: The constraint is violated when groundwater withdrawals exceed an amount equal to the average recharge plus agricultural return flows; if the available water does not meet the water use requirements, a deficit results. The model also assumes a water use priority scheme in which the impact of a deficit is felt first by the agricultural sector, second by the industrial sector, and lastly by the urban sector. Projections of the all-China demand for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and “other” (other grains and fruits and vegetables) were also generated through 2025. Each region’s share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of each region’s share of historic grain production) and projections of the land required in each region to meet this allocated demand were also generated. Agricultural land requirements were compared with an initial approximation of arable land estimated using a geographic information system (GIS) analysis that identified all land with a slope greater than or equal to 1%.

Growth in energy use for coal, oil, natural gas, hydroelectric power, and nuclear power were projected in each of six historically significant sectors—agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, commerce, and residential (and other)—on the basis of GDP and decreasing sectoral energy intensities. Energy demand and fuel consumption were projected for China through 2025 for the case where nuclear and hydropower capture increasing shares (corresponding with official plans of the Chinese government) and for an alternative scenario with accelerated use of nuclear and hydropower. CO₂ and CH₄ emissions resulting from the production (extraction), distribution (primarily natural gas pipelines), and consumption (burning) of coal, oil and natural gas were projected through 2025 and compared with U.S. and world-wide emissions for 1995. Projections of CO₂ emissions for the scenario of accelerated use of nuclear and hydropower were also generated. Agricultural emissions of CH₄ directly from animals and their waste products and from flooded rice paddies were also projected.

The analysis constituted Phase II of Sandia’s China infrastructure analysis. Phase I, completed in 1997, consisted of an analysis of the dynamics of water availability and use in China, with particular emphasis on the agricultural end-use sector. The analysis was part of an effort undertaken by the Medea group of scientists at the request of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) to improve the understanding of future grain production and consumption in the China and to make a preliminary assessment of the impact of potential grain shortfalls in China on the world grain market.

Results by Infrastructure Model

1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Energy
4. Greenhouse Gas

For more information contact Dr. Dennis Engi, (505) 845-8284.

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