Model Results - Greenhouse Gas

CO₂ Emissions From Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption

The large increase in fossil fuel consumption indicated by the energy model results translates into large increases in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the production, distribution, and consumption of energy. China’s total carbon dioxide emissions increase from 2,629 million metric tons (MmtCO₂) in 1995 (12% of the total 1995 world emissions of 22,048 MmtCO₂) to 12,435 MmtCO₂ in 2025 (a factor of 4.7 or 370%). By 2025, China will generate carbon dioxide in an amount that is more than half that of the 1995 worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, indicating a potential difficulty in effectively limiting future worldwide emissions without Chinese cooperation (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Projected total Chinese CO₂ emissions for 2005, 2015, and 2025 compared with U.S. and total world CO₂ emissions for 1995.

Figures 2, 3, and 4 present the total carbon dioxide emissions in China for 1998 and for 2025 allocated by energy resource and consumption sector. As shown in the figures, total carbon dioxide generated in China from the production, distribution, and consumption of energy increases from 3,272 to 12,435 MmtCO₂ (a factor of 3.8). Although coal generates by far the largest portion of total carbon dioxide emissions in both 1998 and 2025, the percent of total emissions from that resource drops from 81 to 75% from 1998 to 2025; emissions from natural gas and oil increase by factors of 5.1 and 4.7, respectively. In the consumption sector, the percent contributions from the transportation, commercial, construction, and “other” sectors increase from 1998 to 2025, while the percent contributions from both agriculture and industry decrease.

Figure 2. Percent Allocation of Total CO₂ Generated in China, by Energy Resource and Consumption Sector (1998 and 2025)

Figure 3. CO₂ Generated in China in 1998, by Energy Resource and Consumption Sector (million metric tons)

Figure 4. CO₂ Generated in China in 2025, by Energy Resource and Consumption Sector (million metric tons)

CH₄ Emissions From the Agricultural and Energy Sectors

Total methane emissions from the energy sector will increase in China from 11.3 million metric tons of CH₄ (MmtCH₄) in 1995 to 52.0 MmtCH₄ in 2025 (a factor of 4.6, or 360%); methane emissions from the agricultural sector will increase from approximately 26.4 MmtCH₄ in 1995 to 37.3 MmtCH₄ in 2025 (over 40%). Although the agricultural sector is currently the primary source of methane in China, the energy sector will overtake the agricultural sector as the primary source by the year 2025 (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. Estimated methane from energy and agriculture, 1995–2025.

Figures 6, 7, and 8 present total CH₄ emissions in China for 1998 and 2025 allocated by energy resource and by consumption sector. As shown in the figures, total methane emissions will increase from 14 MmtCH₄ in 1998 to 52 MmtCH₄ in 2025. The percent allocations of total CH₄ emissions from energy resources remain the same; the relative contributions of methane emissions from the consumption sectors, however, change over time. The percent allocations for the commercial, construction, transportation, and “other” sectors increase, while those for the industry and agriculture sectors decrease.

Figure 6. Percent Allocation of Total CH₄ Generated in China, by Energy Resource Sector and Consumption Sector (1998 and 2025)

Figure 7. CH₄ Generated in China in 1998, by Energy Resource and Consumption Sector (million metric tons)

Figure 8. CH₄ Generated in China in 2025, by Energy Resource and Consumption Sector (million metric tons)

Global Warming Impact

The model results indicate that the total carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 will be substantially greater than those for methane (12,435 MmtCO₂, as compared with 52 MmtCH₄). Methane, however, has a greater short-term impact than CO₂ on global warming. The impact of CH₄ over a 50-year time frame has been estimated to be as much as 21 times that of CO₂ [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1996], as illustrated in Figure 9.

Figure 9. Relative impact of CO₂ and CH₄ on global warming.

Results by Infrastructure Model

1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Energy
4. Greenhouse Gas

For more information contact Dr. Dennis Engi,(505) 845-8284.

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