Model Results - Energy

The China energy model results indicate that total energy demand will increase by a factor of 3.8 (or 280%) from 1998 to 2025 (see Figure 1). Although the demand for coal will decrease slightly relative to oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy (72.2% of all fuel consumed in 1998 compared with 67.6% in 2025), coal will remain the dominant fuel source in China, growing by a factor of 3.6 (or 260%) by the year 2025. Minimal changes are predicted in terms of overall fuel shares even with a more rapid substitution of hydro and nuclear power for coal; that is, even if Chinese installed nuclear capacity grows to 86 gigawatts in 2020 (the equivalent of building over ninety-four 900-megawatt nuclear plants by 2020) and installed hydropower capacity increases by 148 gigawatts.

Figure 1. Total Energy Consumption in China Allocated by Resource and Consumption Sectors (1998 and 2025)

Figures 2 and 3 show energy model results in terms of the allocation of energy in China from primary resources to consumption sectors for both 1998 and 2025.

Figure 2. 1998 China Energy Flow from Primary Resources to Consumption Sectors (million metric tons of coal equivalent).

Figure 2. 2025 China Energy Flow from Primary Resources to Consumption Sectors (million metric tons of coal equivalent).

Results by Infrastructure Model

1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Energy
4. Greenhouse Gas