Model Results - Agriculture

Figure 1 presents the all-China food demand from 1980 to 2025 generated by the agronomic model for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and "other" (including other grains and fruits and vegetables). The figure includes not only food consumed by humans but also grains and "other" used as feedstock for meat animals that are eventually consumed by humans. These results were generated by apportioning the annual caloric demand for all of China according to historical human consumption data for these food categories for all of China for the years 1994-96 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The additional grains and "other" food consumed by meat animals were computed using meat animal feed conversion efficiencies.

Figure 1. All-China grain, meat, and "other" demand, 1980–2025.

Figure 2 shows the regional all-China grain and "other" demand (excluding meat) allocated by the model on the basis of each region's share of historic grain production. The resulting "demand" for each region is proportional to its share of the historic all-China grain production. This allocation was done in order to assess each region's land and water resources for grain production.

Figure 2. Grain and "other" demand for each water drainage region, 1980–2025.

Comparisons of available land with the amount of land needed in the Haihe and Huanghe regions to meet each region's projected share of the all-China grain demand generated in the China agronomic model indicate that the amount of available land is more than sufficient to meet land needs in both regions. The availability of water for agriculture in these regions appears to be the limiting factor in meeting this allocated grain demand. See Figures 3 and 4.

Figure 3. Haihe region's share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of historic grain production) and the land and water needed to meet that demand, 1980–2025.

Figure 4. Huanghe region's share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of historic grain production) and the land and water needed to meet that demand, 1980-2025.

Results by Infrastructure Model

1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Energy
4. Greenhouse Gas

For more information contact Dr. Dennis Engi, (505) 845-8284.

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