Increasing population, rapid industrialization, and rising affluence in the People’s Republic of China have raised questions about China’s capacity for meeting its long-term food needs and about the impact of a potential grain deficit on the world economy. Questions have also been raised about the impact of greenhouse gas emissions that are likely to be generated as a result of increased economic activity and energy use.

The China Infrastructure Initiative has consisted of two components. The first involved the convening of a panel of agricultural resource stakeholders in Beijing, China. This panel used the Vital Issues process to begin to establish the context for developing a decision support system for managing China’s critical infrastructures in order to promote the sustainable agriculture and rural development. The second component of the Initiative has involved a comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of China performed by Sandia National Laboratories. This multi-phase analysis has used dynamic simulation to address questions about China’s ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased economic activity and energy use.

Setting the Context... the Vital Issues Process

Vital Issues Panel, December 18, 1996, Beijing, China

A panel of agriculture resource stakeholders convened to establish the context for developing a decision support system for China’s critical infrastructures in order to promote sustainable development. The panel achieved consensus on the goal to establish a decision information system for China’s sustainable agriculture and rural development that is sensitive to geographical variation and technical advances.

1. Goal
2. Vital Issues
3. Panelists

Advanced Computational Capabilities... the ‘Silicon’ Computer

Sandia National Laboratories has undergone a comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of the People’s Republic of China. Phase I consisted of an analysis of the dynamics of water availability and use in China, with particular emphasis on the agricultural end-use sector. A dynamic water model was developed to simulate the hydrologic budgetary processes in five river drainage basins China. The model was designed to assess the effects of changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural water use requirements on the availability of water in each basin and to estimate the water surpluses and/or deficits in China through the year 2025. An agronomic model was also developed to generate projects of the water required to service China’s agricultural sector and compare China’s projected grain production with projected grain consumption requirements to estimate any grain surplus and/or deficit.

In Phase II, the water and agronomic models developed in Phase I were expanded and refined. Two additional dynamic models-energy and greenhouse gas-were developed to simulate energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China through the year 2025. The four models were then integrated into a comprehensive critical infrastructure model for all of China that would allow for the exchange of information between the separate models and capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system. The results summarized in these pages are those of Phase II.

The China Critical Infrastructure Analysis has successfully demonstrated a useful approach for modeling critical infrastructures.

Infrastructure Model Results

1. Water Resources
2. Agriculture
3. Energy
4. Greenhouse Gas

Use the China Model

Access to World-Class Experts... the ‘Protein’ Computer

The Protein Computer component of the Decision Support System will provide a distributed collaborative environment for decision makers, analysts, consultants, and interested stakeholders to share information, exchange data, and analyze the model results real time. Opportunities will include videoconferencing, simultaneous viewing of “silicon” computer model results, white board teleconferencing of data and ideas, file transfer, as well as chat rooms.

For more information contact Dr. Dennis Engi, (505) 845-8284.

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